Buy, Hold or Sell During Geopolitical Events?

Quick Recovery and Positive Returns Post Event

Markets may be volatile during geopolitical events but have typically recovered within a few weeks and have generated positive returns on average in the 1- and 2-year period that followed. The average duration of sell-offs and recoveries has been approximately 2 weeks.

Geopolitical Events and Market Performance

Average return:

•Sell-off: -5.28%
•1 year after: 7.58%
•2 years after: 19.04%

High Correlation Between Equity Strategies During These Events

The broad market represented by the S&P 500, Growth and Value strategies, performed roughly in-line on average during these events.

S&P 500, Value and Growth: Performance Comparison

Source:  LIVE MARKETS Geopolitical shocks: what next for markets? Performance from Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of 02/24/2022.

Value: The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Growth: The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

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